Posted by With no actual racing on at the minute, the dominating news is quite rightly Michael Schumacher’s return to F1 and the questions everyone’s asking are a) whether he’s fit enough and b) whether he can win? Thankfully he seems to as fit as a fiddle and should be fine, despite not being able to test the latest Ferrari until Friday practice at Valencia. He’s making up for it by karting with test driver Luca Badoer and driving older F1 cars.
Whether he can win is another whole massive question – sure, we all know he is capable of winning races and there are countless fantastic victories he’s had and a few magnificent demonstrations of his raw pace such as Brazil 2006. As Ross Brawn pointed out, and it’s pretty obvious to be fair – much of the impression he’ll make on the 2009 winners table will depend upon Ferrari’s F60. It started as a complete dog, had a makeover and was given the catchy name of the “F60B” and has had a bit of a comeback, with Kimi coming 2nd at the Hungaroring – which would have been a victory if it wasn’t for Lewis thrashing the incredibly revitalised McLaren around the ‘ring even quicker.
In fact, Badger has been back up in the attic and dug out the much-loved Abacus of Accuracy, done some calculations and produced this rather lovely chart showing the top six teams and there performance over the season so far. Click on it to make it larger…
(click to enlarge it!)
The chart clearly highlights BrawnGP’s drastic fall in race results and shows how Red Bull have the clear ‘other car’ in with a chance of winning. McLaren had a reasonable start and then a massive comeback in the last round and more interestingly, the turquoise line of Williams shows their slow but steady progress throughout the season so far. Looking at Ferrari, their line of progress is similarly showing steady progress, and bearing in mind that at round 10 (Hungary) they only had one car, it’s definitely an impressive turnaround.
If Schumacher’s chance of victory is dependent on the car, he should be fine. As well as Ross Brawn, Mark Webber has been as vocal as ever and made his thoughts clear when talking to the BBC, saying “Michael is a world-class driver, he’ll be back and he’ll win a race, I think he’ll win a race this year” - so can we say it’s fact that Schumacher can/will win at Valencia? It’s time for Badger to put some evidence up against the the theories, which is also known as it being time for one of our (now world famous) Pies of Possibility, so here we are, straight out the oven…
…and here’s the ingredients that made up the pie:
The ingredients in the pie (the remaining 10% is left for the essential 'something else' option)
- Previous Experience : he’s a seven time world champion, has broken nearly every record going and is statistically the most successful driver in the history of the sport.
- Age/Fitness : it was a concern initially but he’s passed the fitness tests and should be fine – as for age, it’s not much of problem at all, he won’t be breaking the record of the oldest driver to win (a chap called Luigi Fagioli won the 1951 French GP aged 53yrs and 22days)
- Ferrari F60 : as the team graph shows, the F60 has considerably improved as the season has gone on, so he can’t blame the car for not winning (he could blame it on someone else being faster mind…)
- Testing : as reported here, he can’t test prior to Valencia
- The track : he’s only had simulator experience, but so did Lewis in his champ winning year
- Recent Experience : lacking, especially since his motorbike accident
- His Presence : it’s true, the Schumacher name could literally strike fear into the minds of the weak, imagine poor Jaime Algeursauri in only his second race having mirrors full of Schumacher Ferrari, Jaime would be off the road instantly…
- Team Environment : it’s all changed since his decade of dominance, he’ll miss his tactical genius (Mr Brawn) but he’s still very much part of the team
- Media Attention : Massive, every media monkey will be clambering for chance to get a few words from the modern legend of F1, but it won’t bother him, since he was always excellent at handling the press.
- Overall – a victory is pretty likely.
So that’s Badger’s in-depth analysis of Schumacher’s prospect of victory – now it’s time for some opinion – get busy in the comments… surely you have an opinion?
Brilliant analysis – really interesting stuff. However, if it was that ‘easy’ to predict what’s going to happen in Valencia, then nobody would bother either to go…or watch! I don’t think that he’s going to win, purely because I’m not convinced that the Ferrari is (a) quick enough or (b) reliable enough. The team seems to have lost its way a tad too, although I admit that it was a little more ‘together’ in Hungary. I suspect that we may see another McLaren victory in Spain although it it’s hot, the Brawns could come back into the fray. And one can’t eliminate the Red Bulls either, although it’s not a quick circuit and they seem to excel where there are long, fast corners. Will Schumacher win this year? It really depends on how many races he’s in the Ferrari for. I guess that Felipe Massa will want to get back asap although I suspect that it will be next year before he can realistically hope to be in the car. Head injuries can take an age to repair themselves and the amount of swelling on his temple was pretty mega. Whatever happens towards the end of this year, it looks certain to be a vintage season of F1 and I can’t wait to see how it pans out. Cheers – Geoff Thomas
Admittedly i’m not a fan of Schumacher’s but i’ve just melted at the thought of this: Kimi vs Michael vs Lewis at Spa. That is going to be special! And Vettel’s pretty handy around there too.
As for Valencia; Mmm no, i don’t think we’ll see a Schumacher victory. Probably a Vettel victory. Though i’d prefer a Mark victory!
Well, I guess not now… big stupid twit…
So who would you put your bets on? Badoer, Gene, or someone else?
Don’t forget Luca was also at the karting thing that Michael did…
That’s exactly what I thought before the announcement. To be honest, it was a surpise, but perhaps look at it in the way that Gene is most likely off to race next season whereas Badoer is actually older than all the guys in F1, even Grandda’ Barrichello. Would have put my money on Gene though regardless… But only ’cause I snapped him at Goodwood and was dying to use the picture.